Friday, February 19, 2010

Move On ... The Global Warming Hype Has Been Totally Discredited

As far as I'm concerned the brouhaha about global warming is over. The answer is that it was all a scam pretty much from the get-go with the outcome cooked by contrived data sets driving relatively incomplete and likely seriously flawed climate models. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be trying to understand how natural effect interact to cause weather, but it should be a cautionary tale about completeness and modeling.

Completeness is when you have all the factors in the model. Global climate models are so far short of complete they are laughable. Just because you have all the factors in the model doesn't mean that you model is accurate. It might not even be any good since the factors interact to cause secondary and tertiary effects and so forth. Indeed, if the system is chaotic the least little bit of minor numerical rounding error can cause the model to go off in a bad direction. Weather is considered a chaotic system, so that means you should not trust any climate model except perhaps in some very broad general sense. They are intrinsically imprecise.

I think that the global warming alarmists are likely to keep beating the drum, but it seems also likely that fewer and fewer people are going to listen to them, especially if the current cooling trend which set in back in the 1995-1998 region continues.

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