Thursday, May 13, 2010

The New Paradigm: Replace Science With Phony Baloney

The New Scientific Paradigm(Pseudoscience):
“In brief, we have the new paradigm where simulation and programs have replaced theory and observation, where government largely determines the nature of scientific activity, and where the primary role of professional societies is the lobbying of the government for special advantage.”
SEE HERE

Still worse is the fact that often the resulting "science" is untestable. This of course means it is not science at all. It is pseudoscience pretending to be science. Why do I say that? Well a formally required characteristic of science is that its predictions can be falsified. Many of the things that are "simulated" are inherently beyond the possibility of experiment. They are essentially ghost stories. They are the appearance of science in the service of policy.

SEE HERE on types of climate models. I got to looking at this when I looked at the latest doom and gloom scenario trying to make out that CO2 growth will lead to run away warming. The deep doo-doo keeps getting deeper as the alarmists try to find ways to salvage what is increasingly looking like decades of more and more speculative ghost stories with little to no support in the actually weather record.

SEE HERE for the piece that go me started. I've been watching the reaction to this little bit of gloom and doom which on its face is pretty implausible. The whole idea of positive feedback in the weather cycle is pretty far-fetched. All the mechanisms that seem to dominate are negative feedback mechanisms. If there were significant positive feedback mechanisms you expect to see some evidence of those in the proxy records going back into the distant past. Instead you find ice age after ice age after ice age. I'd be a whole lot more worried about ice ages than about run away warming because they've happened over and over again. Maybe we should understand those better before we pretend to understand the weather enough to predict all this gloom and doom. And by the way, it would be nice to have a little data for a change instead of the output of climate models that can't even predict the current cooling trend.

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